Posted on May 13, 2013 by Gary Ender
Monday
I want to see today's action in many markets before deciding a course of action for this week. The dollar is likely the most important indicator for me here.
The action of the dollar will likely influence the commodity, and stock markets - of course it will decide the direction of many pairs.
The indices are a little tired here, buy have not decided to move lower either, so let's see how today works out.
I'll be in the Shout Box.
Gary
Posted on May 10, 2013 by Gary Ender
Friday
The indices and sectors are currently overextended and several printed reversal patterns yesterday. We have not seen too many bearish Fridays, but that is because the bullish trend has been in place.
One of the other largest changes effecting many markets is the strength of the dollar index. This has been putting pressure on commodities and may eventually put pressure on the indices if the uptrend continues.
Watch for reports today that have the potential to move the grain markets. The ETF put call ratio spiked to 2.11 yesterday showing that there was an unusual amount of put buying, which is sometimes a bearish signal, but the price action is the most important.
See you in the Shout Box,
Gary Posted on May 8, 2013
Watch Prices Closely Today
The indices are showing signs of running out of gas. We have had sharp moves in all indices over the last few weeks and now the volume is clearly declining as fewer traders are willing to buy at these levels.
We have seen only small pull backs in the recent past when in this condition. It would be shrewd to watch price very closely here for guidance.
The metals and crude are still looking bullish. It will not surprise me if the current leg continues making new highs, but they still have work to do to achieve that.
Soybeans is the only grain that I would consider trading in this area. Stay on the right side of the trade here!
See you in the Shout Box!
Gary Posted on May 7, 2013 by Gary Ender
Drifting Higher
The indices continue to drift higher on light volume. There is very little data today and tomorrow so there may not be any catalyst to change this action. The SPX target is 1625, and then 1660.
I'm not really looking for any velocity in the indices today. The volume is always a distant concern, but it does not seem to matter at this time.
Crude and metals are lower at this time, and grans are looking green. Watch for a potential breakout in gold this week. I still believe that Soybeans is still the best grain to play.
As we talked about last night, I'm stalking a potential reversal in the 30 year T-bond this week, and as soon as today.
See you in the Shout Box,
Gary Posted on May 1, 2013 by Gary Ender
FOMC Day
There is a substantial amount of data being reported in the US and in markets around the world for the rest of this week. The big one today is the FOMC release. This data is always a potential market mover.
The dollar index is trending lower and the FED could reverse that trend, or increase the velocity of the move. As always, it is important to use stops, especially on these types of data rich days.
Most commodities are lower this morning, adding to slight weakness from yesterday's action.
The indices are still in the decision mode, but there is usually a short time frame for them to get sold at resistance or they continue higher. We are likely at the end or that time period today.
Join us in the Shout Box!
Gary Posted on April 29, 2013 by Gary Ender
Top or Not?
It is inconclusive right now if we are making a lower high and forming the market top in the indices that I have been looking for. It appears that we might need to wait a few more days to see what develops.
The bullish move from last week has so far fallen short of the recent highs and at this point, it's unclear if there is more upside momentum.
Commodities are mostly green this morning, including gold and crude. The dollar is down about 40% giving some movement to several FX pairs.
Overall, the overnight session has been relatively quiet with the SP futures in a tight range since about 3:30AM EDT. I think the market will be slow it tries to grind higher, but will move very fast if it rolls over this week.
I'll meet you in the Shout Box, and for those Shrewd Traders, I'll see you in the Shrewd Planning Meeting tonight @ 8:00PM, EDT.
Gary
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